The coming decade will belong to Microsoft. Just as the company dominated the Eighties and Nineties and just as equally as it ceded the first decade of this millennium to others, it will rise as the most innovative large company in technology this decade.

The evidence for this comes not from some revolution in the internal dynamics of the company. Nor does it arise from the company’s unparalleled ability to make money, no matter how adverse the economy is. Nor still does it stem from some “secret project” that will soon be unveiled (not that I’d know about it anyway.)

My conviction, heretical to a generation smitten by iPhones and Tweeting, comes in fact because Microsoft is deemed irrelevant by the countless people who opine about things outside of their abilities to know.

Yes, there is certainly something fashionable and neat about boldly declaring that the most successful software company in history (still, rolling out successes- see Windows 7) is in the beginning of decline, so soon after its highpoint. Clichés about the Roman Empire (even ones about the rapid decline of the Third Reich) abound. These trivialities admittedly are tempered by thoughtful excurses by industry analysts and former insiders who refer to a siloed and stilted culture, a culture of internal politicking, and a desire to maintain and not to build. And yes, Microsoft was late to the Internet, still struggles in search, and missed the consumerization-revolution led by an industrial-design-meets-simplicity logic.

And yet the company endures. And turns out record quarter after record quarter.

What is more, we have seen that technologies can change the economic landscape very quickly. Witness the speed of Google’s rise and of Apple’s rebirth. So what would prevent Microsoft from changing the game completely (and quickly)? Does any of us REALLY know who will be on top in five years? I predict Microsoft; others are free to pick a start-up that will be the new Microsoft.

I am forced here to consider JP Morgan’s famous quip about how he “called” the Stock Market crash of 1929. When his shoeshine boy talked about the stocks he wanted to buy, Mr. Morgan knew the market was seriously overbought.

So given this, I have used a simple methodology to make my grand prediction: When too many people speak in stentorian tones about how “Microsoft sucks” or “is not innovative” and, further, when a good number of these people don’t even know the degree to which they use Microsoft products every day, I know the perception is “oversold.” Similarly, when everyone in Seattle boasted constantly without introspection, one knew that Microsoft had a tough decade ahead.

Well, people at Microsoft today are incredibly thoughtful about the mistakes they’ve made but are also very bright about the future. That’s a pretty deadly combination.

[Full Disclosure: I worked at Microsoft for over 7 years, learned more there about Marketing than I can describe, made some amazing friends there, and still work with the company indirectly. Consider that for what it is, but not for what it’s not.]